Climate scientists admit doomsday scenario no longer believable

1 sources1 storiesFirst seen 5/6/2026Score26Mixed Progress

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Climate scientists have dropped their most apocalyptic forecasts on global warming after finding they were "implausible".

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Scientists and the media have long quoted from the IPCC's worst-case scenarios, which foresaw temperatures soaring by up to 5C, massive sea level rises and global crop failures.Some even predicted it could ultimately bring about extinction events on the scale of the dinosaurs.

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But now modellers working for the UN-backed IPCC, which provides climate change information to governments, say the chances of this worst-case scenario actually happening are "negligible".

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TRENDING Stories Videos Your Say The scenario was known as RCP 8.5 and, later, SSP5 8.5.Researchers say it was intended "to explore an unlikely high-risk future" but it was "widely used by some experts, policymakers and the media as something else entirely: as a likely ‘business as usual' outcome".

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It has been cited more than 45,000 times in academic papers and fed through to informing policy.

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A: Climate scientists have dropped their most apocalyptic forecasts on global warming after finding they were "implausible".

B: Scientists and the media have long quoted from the IPCC's worst-case scenarios, which foresaw temperatures soaring by up to 5C, massive sea level rises and global crop failures.Some even predicted it could ultimately bring about extinction events on the scale of the dinosaurs.